Using Stop Loss Orders to Determine When to Enter a Trade

by: Derek Frey


More from this Author at http://www.mytradesignals.com

Many people enter into trades with little more than a desire for profit. In Forex we normally use between 50 – 400 to 1 leverage. Because of the large amount of leverage we are able to use, simply hoping for a profit is not enough. Traders need a solid plan before the pull they trigger. When planning any battle, successful generals begin at the retreat and work their way backwards. Traders should do the same. The first and most important decision is when to admit defeat and retreat. Survival to fight another day is more important that going down with the ship. This article proposes that traders take a different approach to figuring out when and where to place their next trade. The approach is simple. Just like the generals, start by figuring out when to get out. This may sound strange, but if you apply this idea to whatever other methods you are using to determine your entry signals, your bottom line should improve. The overall idea is simple, rather than first looking for a good entry point, look for a point where you would want to be stopped out. At this point you are probably saying “who ever wants to get stopped out?”

The answer is, not the majority. But let’s look at several statistics for a moment to get some perspective. Depending on who you believe, anywhere between 75-95% of all retail Forex traders blow out their account within one year. So it seems that the 5-25% of traders who are winning are doing something different then the majority who are losing. One of those main differences is not being bothered by getting stopped out. Many new traders complain that they hate trading with stops because they have been stopped out of a trade that almost immediately turned around and would have been a huge winner had they not run the stop. They take that to mean that they should not trade with stops. Trading without some kind of risk management is like playing Russian roulette by yourself, it may not be the next pull of the trigger that kills you, but pull it enough times and sooner or later it’s a sure thing. Trading without risk management is much the same. You may get away with it for a while, but the lesson you are learning will sooner or later prove deadly.

There are many forms of risk management, from the extremely complex, like cross hedging with options, to the very simple, such as using stops. The use of stop loss orders is one of the simplest and often most effective way to manage the risks of any given trade. The reason many traders have had a bad experience with using stops is not the fault of the stop itself, but rather the placement of the stop. Most traders get into a trade and then decide where to run a stop, if at all. They often have a fixed dollar amount that they are willing to risk per trade and they then place the stop loss order accordingly. All of this on the surface sounds like a good plan, but in practice it often leads to the scenario mentioned before, where the trade gets stopped out and then the market turns on a dime and goes the way the trader had originally anticipated, leaving them to mistakenly blame the stop. The individual points that led to the stop being placed are not bad in and of themselves, but put together this way, they often lead to the frustration mentioned above.

So let us look at these issues from another angle. Rather than getting into a trade and then deciding where to get out, let’s determine the exit point and let that dictate where we get in. To do this you will need a chart. Choose the chart’s time-frame based on how long you intend to hold the trade. If you only hold your trades for a few hours then a 15 or 60 minute chart should be fine. If you are more of a swing trader, then daily or even weekly charts would be best. Currencies tend to trend more than most other markets. However, they do not trend all the time. In fact the opposite is true. Most markets only trend about 30% of the time. The remaining 70% of the time they are trading within a range or chopping. Therefore, learning how to trade the chop is paramount if you want to be a trader for years to come. What follows is a simple yet effective way to trade the chop.

Trading the Chop

First, start by looking at long term support and resistance zones. Markets tend to have certain zones that they “bounce” off of time and time again before penetrating them. These zones are what you want to look for. Start with weekly or even monthly charts, no matter what time-frame you trade in. This will tell you in an instant whether the market is trending or choppy. Once you determine the underlying market condition, look for significant areas of support and resistance. Finally, move to a daily chart and then to a 60 minute chart. After going through these different time-frames you should be able to find a number of these zones. The best are those that coincide through all the time-frames. That will only happen if the market is at or near relative new highs or lows. When it does happen, though, it is time to sit up and pay attention. However, you do not need to wait for perfect conditions to use this method. You only need a support or resistance zone in whatever time-frame you are comfortable trading. Once you have identified these areas on a chart, you need to look closely and determine where that level would be broken and place your stops accordingly. A move through this level would signify that the market is breaking out from the previously established range. Once you find what the highest high is in the case of a resistance level, or lowest low in the case of a support level, you need to go a certain distance beyond that so you are not stopped out by a move of only one or two pips beyond these levels.

There are many ways to determine how much extra distance to give each market. One way that I have used is to simply look for the next closest Fibonacci number. This method is not scientific, but one that has served me well over the years. The Fibonacci sequence is one that was discovered by a mathematician all the way back in 13th century. The sequence is as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144… For the purposes of using them for stops I normally only use 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, and 89. So if the last two digits of the highest high in a resistance zone had been 25, then you would use either 34 or 55 depending on which particular market it is in. The more volatile, or greater the average true range (ATR), the wider you should go.

Once you identify the zone you can then come up with your exact stop point.

Look at the daily chart of the USD/JPY and you can see that we have had significant resistance between roughly 121.50 and 122.25. Each time the market has reached this zone it has failed to follow through. There have been three attempts to break out from this zone, each one being lower than the last, forming a descending trend line. This is what you want to look for. Once you identify the zone you can then come up with your exact stop point. Simply find the recent highest high, in this case 121.66, and then find the next closest Fibonacci number (89) and you have your stop (121.89).

Determining your entry point

Now that you know where you are going to run your stop you can use that to determine your entry point. This is the point where you want determine how much actual money you are willing to risk on the trade. Most money managers will tell you to never invest more than 1% of your account on one trade. That rule really only works for traders using 50k or more. Most traders start with less and therefore are forced to break that rule. Starting with a $5,000 account and only risking 1% would mean that you can only risk $50 per trade, which in some cases is less than the bid/ask spread once you enter the trade, so it is obviously not realistic. But try to keep the amount you risk on any one trade as low as you can. Trading is a long-term endeavor. Do not fall into the trap of thinking that your next trade is “the big one” and you are sure it will work, and therefore put half or even all of your account into it. That is not money management, it is gambling. But let’s say you are comfortable risking $400 on a trade, or 40 pips on a 100k contract. Looking at a Daily chart of the USD/JPY, you can see that the most recent high was 121.66. Using the Fibonacci stop idea you would run your stop at 121.89 because 89 is the next closest Fibonacci number above 66. Now you have your stop well above a significant point of resistance. To calculate your entry point, simply subtract the 40 pips you are willing to risk from your stop point to arrive at 121.59 (121.89 – 40 = 121.59). The next day the market traded up to 121.63 so a limit order at 121.59 should have been filled. Once the order is filled, you can trail your stop with the market or move it to coincide with other support and resistance zones within the range. Your target would be somewhere near the bottom of the range. In this example your target would be a move to 119.50 or below.

So let’s review this method. First determine if the current market is trending or chopping. Then look to identify areas of support and or resistance. Next find the highest high in a recent resistance level or the lowest low in a support level. Determine the next closest Fibonacci number and you have your stop point. Then take the amount you are willing to risk per trade and either subtract it from your stop if it is a short trade or add it to your stop if it is a long trade. You now have both your stop and entry points, and you are only risking whatever amount you determined you were comfortable with. Your stop is placed at a level that signifies a change in the recent trend, and therefore is mush less random than most other stops. This method is not to be used exclusively, but it is one that can compliment whatever other indicators or patterns you are using to determine you next trade. This method should help you avoid getting stopped out at insignificant points that have you selling near highs and buying near lows within the established trading range.

How To Write A Successful Business Plan

by: Jason Kay

Whether you are planning to start a brand-new business, expand an existing company, or get financing for a business venture, you will need to write a business plan. A business plan not only lends your business a sense of credibility, but also helps you to cover all your bases, increasing your chances of success.

Although writing a business plan can be a lengthy, intimidating project, it is not necessarily difficult. Here is an overview of how to write a successful business plan.

What to Include in Your Business Plan

Your business plan needs to demonstrate that you have thoroughly considered all aspects of running your business. To that end, the standard business plan has nine major sections, covering everything from your business’s mission statement to a detailed financial analysis.

Executive Summary

The first – and most important – section of your business plan is the executive summary. This section is so important that it should literally be the first thing the reader sees – even before the table of contents! However, it should also be written last, as you’ll have a better understanding of the overall message of your business plan after you’ve researched and written the other sections.

One of the most important parts of the executive summary is the mission statement. The mission statement is only three or four sentences long, but it should pack the most punch out of everything else in your business plan: Those four sentences are responsible for not only defining your business, but also capturing the interest of your reader.

The rest of your executive summary should fill in the important details that the mission statement glosses over. For instance, your executive summary should include a short history of the business, including founder profiles and start date; a current snapshot, listing locations, numbers of employees, and products or services offered; and a summary of future plans and goals.

This section is a candidate for a bulleted format, which allows you to list main points in a manner that is easy to scan. Avoid using too much detail – remember, this section is a summary. A page or two is usually sufficient for an executive summary.

Market Analysis

The next section of your business plan focuses on market analysis. In order to show that your business has a reasonable chance for success, you will need to thoroughly research the industry and the market you intend to sell to. No bank or investor is going to back a doomed venture, so this section is sure to fall under especially close scrutiny if you are looking for financing.

Your market analysis should describe your industry, including the size, growth rate, and trends that could affect the industry. This section should also describe your target market – that is, the type or group of customers that your company intends to serve. The description of your target market should include detail such as:

• Distinguishing characteristics
• The needs your company or product line will meet
• What media and/or marketing methods you’ll use to reach them
• What percentage of your target market you expect to be able to wrest away from your competitors

In addition, your market analysis should include the results of any market tests you have done, and an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of your competitors.

Company Description

After your market analysis, your business plan will need to include a description of your company. This section should describe:

• The nature of your business
• The needs of the market
• How your business will meet these needs
• Your target market, including specific individuals and/or organizations
• The factors that set you apart from your competition and make you likely to succeed

Although some of these things overlap with the previous section, they are still necessary parts of your company description. Each section of your business plan should have the ability to stand on its own if need be. In other words, the company description should thoroughly describe your company, even if certain aspects are covered in other sections.

Organization and Management

Once you have described the nature and purpose of your company, you will need to explain your staff setup. This section should include:

• The division of labor – how company processes are divided among the staff
• The management hierarchy
• Profiles of the company’s owner(s), management personnel, and the Board of Directors
• Employee incentives, such as salary, benefits packages, and bonuses

This goal of this section is to demonstrate not only good organization within the company, but also the ability to create loyalty in your employees. Long-term employees minimize human resource costs and increase a business’s chances for success, so banks and investors will want to see that you have an effective system in place for maintaining your staff.

Marketing and Sales Management

The purpose of the marketing and sales section of your business plan is to outline your strategies for marketing your products or services. This section also plans for company growth by describing how the growth could take place.

The section should describe your company’s:

• Marketing methods
• Distributions methods
• Type of sales force
• Sales activities
• Growth strategies

Product or Services

Following the marketing section of your business plan, you will need a section focusing on the product or services your business offers. This is more than a simple description of your product or services, though. You will also need to include:

• The specific benefits your product or service offers customers
• The specific needs of the market, and how your product will meet them
• The advantages your product has over your competitors
• Any copyright, trade secret, or patent information pertaining to your product
• Where any new products or services are in the research and development process
• Current industry research that you could use in the development of products and services

Funding Request

Only once you have described your business from head to toe are you ready to detail your funding needs. This section should include everything a bank or investor needs in order to understand what type of funding you want:

• How much money you need now
• How much money you think you will need over the next five years
• How the money you borrow will be used
• How long you will need funding
• What type of funding you want (i.e. loans, investors, etc.)
• Any other terms you want the funding arrangement to include

Financials

The financials section in your business plan supports your request for outside funding. This section provides an analysis of your company’s prospective financial success. The section also details your company’s financial track record for the past three to five years, unless you are seeking financing for a startup business.

The financials section should include:

• Company income statements for prior years
• Balance sheets for prior years
• Cash flow statements for prior years
• Forecasted company income statements
• Forecasted balance sheets
• Forecasted cash flow statements
• Projections for the next five years – every month or quarter for the first year, with longer intervals for the remaining years
• Collateral you can use to secure a loan

The financials section is a great place to include visuals such as graphs, particularly if you predict a positive trend in your projected financials. A graph allows the reader to quickly take in this information, and may do a better job of encouraging a bank or investor to finance your business. However, be sure that the amount of financing you are requesting is in keeping with your projected financials – no matter how impressive your projections are, if you are asking for more money than is warranted, no bank or investor will give it to you.

Appendices

The appendix is the final section in your business plan. Essentially, this is where you put all of the information that doesn’t fit in the other eight sections, but that someone – particularly a bank or investor – might need to see.

For instance, the market analysis section of your business plan may list the results of market studies you have done as part of your market research. Rather than listing the details of the studies in that section, where they will appear cumbersome and detract from the flow of your business plan, you can provide this information in an appendix.

Other information that should be relegated to an appendix includes:

• Credit histories for both you and your business
• Letters of reference
• References that have bearing on your company and your product or service, such as magazines or books on the topic
• Company licenses and patents
• Copies of contracts, leases, and other legal documents
• Resumes of your top managers
• Names of business consultants, such as your accountant and attorney

Writing a Successful Business Plan

Despite the quantity of information contained in your business plan, it should be laid out in a format that is easy to read. Just like with any piece of business writing, it is important to craft your business plan with your intended audience in mind – and the bankers, investors, and other busy professionals who will read your business plan almost certainly won’t have time to read a tedious document with long-winded paragraphs and large blocks of text.

Business plans for startup companies and company expansions are typically between twenty to forty pages long, but formatting actually accounts for a lot of this length. A strong business plan uses bullet points throughout to break up long sections and highlight its main points. Visuals such as tables and charts are also used to quickly relay specific information, such as trends in sales and other financial information. These techniques ensure that the reader can skim the business plan quickly and efficiently.

Think of your audience as only having fifteen minutes to spend on each business plan that comes across their desks. In that fifteen minutes, you not only have to relay your most important points, but also convince the reader that your business venture merits a financial investment. Your best bet is a well-researched business plan, with an organized, easy-to-read format and clear, confident prose.